MIDEAST MIRROR 24.10.18, SECTION B (THE ARAB WORLD)
1-Taken to a new level
2-Not-so-deserted Davos
3-De Mistura departs
1- Taken to a new level
Erdogan has become the cornerstone in this case that will continue to develop for a long time to come. Winning his favor, in order to secure information or reach possible political compromises or come up with a suitable production, will become the aim of politicians East and West: Both those who want to save bin Salman and those eager to denounce him and get rid of him. Today, whether he likes it or not, Erdogan is the man who, together with others, – the first and last of whom will be the Americans – will decide whether the entire region will be forced to cohabit for decades with a man who gets away with a heinous crime that will continue to pursue him as a curse throughout his rule, or whether the heinousness of what happened will lead Saudi Arabia, the region, and the world to soon get rid of a symbol of savagery who was in a rush to rise to the throne, and whose barbarity toppled him before he could fulfill his desire--Mohammad Kureishan in pan-Arab daily al-Quds al-Arabi
If Erdogan was trying to gain sympathy by describing the tragic nature of the case, the Kingdom has officially declared that the crime was heinous and that it absolutely rejects it. And if he is showing his concern for justice, the Kingdom has very firmly confirmed its very same concern before his speech. This being the case, Erdogan's speech offered no new information. Erdogan stressed that he believes in King Salman's good intentions and his cooperation in a case where the investigations are not yet complete. However, he dropped hints regarding the operation's planning. We know who he has in mind and what he means, even though the Kingdom has denied that its leadership knew anything about the case… in one way or another [Erdogan] confirmed Turkish policies towards the Arab region whose center of gravity and main weight are represented by Saudi Arabia. His speech, therefore, had nothing to do with the Jamal Khashoggi case-- Hammoud Abu-Talib in Saudi 'Okaz
Erdogan seems unlikely to waste this 'crime/opportunity.' There are many files open in the world and the region where Saudi Arabia and Turkey are engaged in a tug-of-war: From Syria to Iraq to Libya to Yemen, to a number of countries in the Horn of Africa. Today, the Turkish president has kicked the ball rolling into the Saudi pitch, and specifically to the King, who finds himself under pressure to respond to Erdogan's speech. The Saudi King has a number of options. So, will he produce a fourth narrative that undermines the three previous ones? Or will he belie Erdogan, who has declared that he has more information in his bag and that the case's file is not yet closed? Or will he admit to guilt at higher levels? Be that as it may, it appears that the Khashoggi affair has been taken to a new level, and that the Saudi monarch has realized the enormity of the step that he must take if he is to stand his ground--Hamza al-Khansa on www.alahednews.com.lb
While some people may have been disappointed and others relieved by Turkish President Erdogan's speech on the Khashoggi affair yesterday (Tuesday), it is too early to reach a final conclusion as to Saudi Crown-Prince Mohammad bin Salman's ultimate fate, argues a Tunisian commentator in a Qatari-owned pan-Arab daily. Erdogan has not absolved bin Salman of the crime, but is leaving it to the crown-prince's American friends to denounce him and get rid of him, while simultaneously strengthening his own position as a major leader. Erdogan's speech was devoid of any new information regarding the Khashoggi case, but it did include an illegal demand for the investigation to be internationalized and the accused to be tried in Istanbul, maintains a Saudi commentator. Consequently, it was a political speech that dropped unsubstantiated hints that the Saudi leadership was implicated in the crime. Erdogan hinted that he has evidence that other countries are involved in the Khashoggi case, notes a Lebanese commentator in a pro-Hezbollah news portal. This may confirm that he is trying to secure concessions regarding the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt as well as detained figures and clerics in Saudi Arabia; but he is also trying to promote Turkey as best qualified to lead the Islamic world.
DISAPPOINTMENT AND RELIEF: "All those who were expecting Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's speech yesterday to detonate a real bomb that exposes all the facts regarding Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi's murder in his country's consulate were certainly disappointed," writes Mohammad Kureishan on Wednesday in the Qatari-owned, London-based, pan-Arab daily al-Quds al-Arabi.
By contrast, all those who feared that the speech would deliver the coup de grace to Saudi Crown-Prince Mohammad bin Salman must have breathed a sigh of relief, after all the blows and bullets that have been fired at him by his U.S. allies before anyone else.
But neither the former's disappointment nor the latter's sigh of relief is appropriate. The former were more optimistic than they had cause to be, while the latter will not enjoy their current relief for long. In short, Erdogan's speech did not quench the thirst of those who wanted it to be the final word that would bring the curtain down on this case's mysteries by ultimately pointing the finger at Prince Mohammad bin Salman. Moreover, however, Erdogan failed to satisfy the unfounded wishes of those who hoped his speech would close the case's file and absolve the Saudi political leadership based on certain political calculations or political pressures.
In the coming phase, Erdogan will be operating in this precise zone that separates between those who were disappointed and those who were not totally relieved, and in a manner that will either intensify the disappointment or shrink the sense of relief. He will continue to move between these two extremes, further aggravating both sides' nerves, until the picture becomes completely clear.
The clearest thing that emerged from Erdogan's speech was that the Saudi narrative regarding what happened in the consulate is totally unconvincing as far as Turkey's leadership is concerned, even if the Turkish president did not say this openly and frankly. For he did confirm that the entire operation was prearranged and preplanned, and that it was no mere deviation in a benign attempt to convince Khashoggi to return to his country.
It was never likely for the Turkish president to be the first to offer conclusive evidence that the Saudi leadership was behind this heinous crime. Yet he did not slam the door in the face of such a conclusion. For one thing, he did say that accusing Saudi security officers of being responsible for the crime 'does not reassure either us or the international community.' He also said that the Saudi authorities must expose all those involved in the crime 'from the lowest to the topmost rung of the ladder.' And since we now know who stands on the lowest rung since they have been exposed, we must now wait to see who really stands at the top.
Erdogan has become the ultimate destination of all those interested in the investigation. The first are the Americans whose politicians and security officials have begun to visit him in succession.
Erdogan was most likely to have been deliberately inconclusive in his speech. He neither stated that the Saudi leadership – namely, the Saudi crown-prince – was definitely implicated in the crime, nor did he absolve it of this charge that has been hanging over the leadership's head in a manner that borders on certainty. In fact, Erdogan may have deliberately avoided accusing the leadership directly, leaving this mission to the Saudis' friends – Americans and Europeans – to fulfill. After all, their statements would be more effective and carry greater weight, especially when they come from senators and senior security officials, most of whom present themselves as having been Riyadh's friend and among its staunchest defenders before the consulate crime.
It is not in Erdogan's interest to be at the forefront of an official denunciation of Mohammad bin Salman. For if that is where the investigation is finally heading in line with the well-studied [Turkish] leaks to the media, why bear the weight of such a conclusion if it is going to emerge naturally from the course of events? Why should he be at the forefront of this scene that could completely ruin his country's relations with the entire Saudi state?
The other no less important matter is that Erdogan did not deliver his speech so as to put an end to the 'one-drip-at-a-time' method that Ankara has adopted in dealing with this case ever since it erupted on the scene. He is most likely to persist with this approach, as between one drop and the next, he can benefit by repairing some relations here or there, or extending a line of communication with one party or another. As a result, he will be – or rather already has become – the ultimate destination of all those interested in the investigation. And the Americans, who have begun to inundate him with their politicians and security officials' visits at the highest levels, are the first among them, as evident from the fact that the head of the CIA arrived in Turkey on the eve of Erdogan's speech!!
Erdogan has become the cornerstone in this case that will continue to develop for a long time to come. Winning his favor, in order to secure information or reach possible political compromises or come up with a suitable production, will become the aim of politicians East and West: Both those who want to save bin Salman and those eager to denounce him and get rid of him.
Today, whether he likes it or not, Erdogan is the man who, together with others, – the first and last of whom will be the Americans – will decide whether the entire region will be forced to cohabit for decades with a man who gets away with a heinous crime that will continue to pursue him as a curse throughout his rule, or whether the heinousness of what happened will lead Saudi Arabia, the region, and the world to soon get rid of a symbol of savagery who was in a rush to rise to the throne, and whose barbarity toppled him before he could fulfill his desire.
"To quote the French daily L'Humanité, the question regarding bin Salman is: Will he lose his throne after losing his mind?" concludes Kureishan.
End…
ANTICIPATION AND EXPECTATION: "The anticipation that preceded President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's speech yesterday led the world to await his words with great expectation," writes Hammoud Abu-Talib in Wednesday's Saudi daily 'Okaz.
This was especially due to the fact that the media had reported that he would be stating the 'naked truth' regarding the death of the journalist Jamal Khashoggi – an issue that Turkey has deliberately and continuously leaked reports about in an attempt to transform it into a matter of international concern and mobilize public opinion with the object of confronting the Kingdom with a predicament before the world.
We expected Erdogan to surprise us by revealing new information consistent with the level of excitement that was created before his speech. But that did not happen. Instead, all that Erdogan said had already previously been in the news. In fact, the Saudi Public Prosecutor's official statement included more details and revealed more important facts than Erdogan. All that Erdogan did was to review what happened, while all the time including the hidden feelings in his scenario that are taking this dossier in a direction that does not serve the main issue [Khashoggi's death], and does not promote the interests of common relations between the two countries.
Erdogan knows that the preliminary information regarding the case was reached by the joint Saudi/Turkish team, which he confirmed the Kingdom had agreed to form after he had called King Salman, who welcomed his proposal. Erdogan also knows that the Kingdom has revealed what its preliminary investigations have concluded. He also knows that the Kingdom will not rest until all the investigations are complete and all those implicated in the crime are held accountable and are brought to justice.
So, if Erdogan was trying to gain sympathy by describing the tragic nature of the case, the Kingdom has officially declared that the crime was heinous and that it absolutely rejects it. And if he is showing his concern for justice, the Kingdom has very firmly confirmed its very same concern before his speech. This being the case, Erdogan's speech offered no new information.
Erdogan stressed that he believes in King Salman's good intentions and his cooperation in a case where the investigations are not yet complete. However, he dropped hints regarding the operation's planning. We know who he has in mind and what he means, even though the Kingdom has denied that its leadership knew anything about the case.
Moreover, even though the Kingdom's investigations have yet to reach their final results, Erdogan demanded that a neutral committee pursue these investigations – in other words, he called for the internationalization of this issue. He also expressed his desire for the accused to be put on trial in Istanbul. These two demands represent the crux of the speech. They represent Erdogan's real aim, even though they are legally erroneous and inappropriate in view of the case's circumstances and conditions.
In short, Erdogan delivered a party-political speech before his parliamentary bloc that was part of the power game. It was also political, and in one way or another it confirmed Turkish policies towards the Arab region whose center of gravity and main weight are represented by Saudi Arabia.
"His speech, therefore, had nothing to do with the Jamal Khashoggi case," concludes Abu-Talib.
End…
JUSTIFIABLE ANXIETY: "The Saudis waited anxiously for Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's speech," writes Hamza al-Khansa on the Hezbollah-affiliated news portal www.alahednews.com.lb.
Their anxiety was justifiable in light of the 'theatrical' manner with which the Turkish media announced this speech. Moreover, the Saudis are certain that the Turkish president's bag contains much evidence proving that the 'idea' of murdering the journalist Jamal Khashoggi inside the Saudi consulate in Istanbul was endorsed by the narrowest circles close to Saudi Crown-Prince Mohammad bin Salman.
The Saudi tension peaked a few hours before Erdogan's speech as manifest in Saudi Foreign Minister 'Adel al-Jubeir's hasty message in the form of a press conference in the Indonesian capital Jakarta, promising that his country 'will never repeat what happened with Khashoggi again.'
Meanwhile, the Turkish president delivered his first speech since October 2nd [when Khashoggi disappeared in the Saudi consulate] dealing with the Khashoggi case. True, he said nothing more than what al-Jazeera, Reuters, and The Washington Post have all been reporting regarding the Saudi journalist's murder. But it is also true that his speech transported the information that has been circulating for two weeks from the category of 'media leaks ' to that of the 'official Turkish narrative.'
With that narrative, Erdogan demolished the entire logic that Saudi Arabia has been trying to promote via its media and its journalists over the previous two weeks. According to this logic, Saudi Arabia is a 'victim,' and the murderers were 'lone wolves' who have nothing to do with the ruling family; moreover, Khashoggi was killed 'by mistake.'
Erdogan extended the angle from which this case is being viewed. He set bin Salman aside as someone who cannot be trusted, and endorsed King Salman as the sole authority in this case. In short, Erdogan's aim was to impart momentum to the current that has begun to take shape around the world, and that calls for finding an alternative to the current rash crown-prince. From the Turks' perspective, the matter is not confined to redirecting the focus towards the King and setting the crown-prince aside.
It also consists of opening other tracks for the case that go beyond Turkey as the land where the crime was perpetrated, and beyond Saudi Arabia as the country of whom the perpetrators are citizens. For Erdogan's claim that Khashoggi's murder is a political crime and that there are those implicated in it who hail from other countries and must be included in the investigations opens the door to various possibilities and complex phases and solutions. But Erdogan did not shut the door to the Saudi monarch; on the contrary, he proposed that those involved should be tried in Turkey.
There are those in Turkey who viewed Erdogan's position as tantamount to 'collusion' with the Saudis in Khashoggi's murder. For example, the main opposition CHP (Republican People's Party) demanded steps such as the Saudi ambassador's arrest and severing relations with Riyadh. The CHP's radical demands naturally stem from being in opposition to the ruling AKP (Justice and Development Party), which means that it is lying in wait to exploit any opportunity to promote its opposition to the ruling party.
But the 'Erdoganists' view the entire matter from a different angle – one that allows them to expand the horizon that allows them to 'invest in the crime' and its many tracks. This is the context in which to view Erdogan's talk of other countries being involved, and that can be better understood if the leaks of 'a package of preconditions' that he has set for settling the Khashoggi case prove to be true. Among the most important of these conditions is the release of tens of Muslim Brotherhood leaders imprisoned in Egypt, primarily former president Mohammad Mursi, as well as the release of a number of social figures and clerics detained in Saudi Arabia.
Erdogan's sees the Khashoggi case as an 'opportunity' to demonstrate Turkey's qualifications and the uniqueness of its experiment as 'a leading moderate Islamist state.' It is this precisely that led Erdogan to say on October 15th – two weeks after Khashoggi's death – that 'with its historic heritage, geographic location, and cultural heritage that has ensured that the various creeds could live together in peace in all times, Turkey is the only state that is able to lead and guide the entire Islamic world.'
Erdogan seems unlikely to waste this 'crime/opportunity.' There are many files open in the world and the region where Saudi Arabia and Turkey are engaged in a tug-of-war: From Syria to Iraq to Libya to Yemen, to a number of countries in the Horn of Africa. Today, the Turkish president has kicked the ball rolling into the Saudi pitch, and specifically to the King, who finds himself under pressure to respond to Erdogan's speech.
The Saudi King has a number of options. So, will he produce a fourth narrative that undermines the three previous ones? Or will he belie Erdogan, who has declared that he has more information in his bag and that the case's file is not yet closed? Or will he admit to guilt at higher levels?
Be that as it may, it appears that the Khashoggi affair has been taken to a new level, and that the Saudi monarch has realized the enormity of the step that he must take if he is to stand his ground.
"A few hours after Erdogan's message, the King's response came in the form of a statement issued by the Saudi cabinet that confirmed the Kingdom's determination to hold all those who had failed in the Khashoggi case accountable 'whoever they may be,' and its determination to 'adopt corrective measures that will not stop at bringing those directly responsible for the Khashoggi incident to account," notes Khansa in conclusion.
Ends…
2-Not-so-deserted Davos
Despite the Western boycott of Riyadh's 'Davos in the Desert', Russia and China were there in force, and Mohammad bin Salman appears to have been untouched, says 'Abdelbari 'Atwan on today's pan-Arab www.raialyoum.com
Saudi Arabia's 'Davos in the Desert' forum went ahead yesterday, despite boycotts from many Western companies and banks, notes the editor-in-chief of an online pan-Arab daily. Crown-Prince bin Salman's attendance at the event and the lack of any new evidence regarding the Khashoggi case in the Turkish president's speech yesterday suggest that some sort of deal may have been struck behind the scenes and that bin Salman will remain in power.
ANOTHER RITZ CARLTON EVENT: "It is ironic for Saudi Arabia to hold the 'Davos in the Desert' international investment conference in the same Ritz-Carlton Hotel where Prince Mohammad bin Salman held around 350 Saudi businessmen including 13 emirs prisoner, the best known of whom was the famous billionaire al-Walid bin Talal," notes Editor-in-Chief 'Abdelbari 'Atwan on Wednesday's pan-Arab www.raialyoum.com.
According to reports, Prince bin Salman forced the detainees to pay some $30 billion from their own monies and fortunes that they were accused of having amassed via business deals marred by corruption.
Many countries, such as the UK, France, Germany, and Holland cancelled their finance ministers' participation in this conference in protest against the official Saudi role in journalist Jamal Khashoggi's murder. But U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, who said that he had cancelled his participation, arrived in Riyadh, met with Prince bin Salman, and discussed the means of developing the two countries' economic cooperation with him.
President Donald Trump's fears that China and Russia may conclude huge business deals with Saudi Arabia to the value of tens of billions of dollars may not be misplaced. Companies and delegations from the two countries dominated the conference. We cannot exclude the possibility that the U.S. treasury secretary's visit to Riyadh and his meeting with Prince bin Salman was meant to discuss this issue and to guarantee the American arms' deal that is estimated at $110 billion for this year alone.
Showing less concern for Khashoggi's death, President Putin wishes to accept the official Saudi narrative and to guide his actions based on the official information regarding this crime, according to which no members of the ruling family – specifically Prince Mohammad bin Salman – are involved in any of its episodes.
This Russian statement of innocence aims to side with Saudi Arabia as it faces its most serious crisis in the hope of securing a greater share of its business and arms' deals, especially since Prince bin Salman has visited Moscow more than once and has expressed his interest in the Russian S-400 missile system, as well as in acquiring 15 nuclear reactors for peaceful purposes. Consequently, by participating in this economic forum and preferring it to the cabinet meeting from which he was absent, bin Salman wanted to deliver a message to the U.S. that Russia and China are ready to fill its place.
Saudi commentator Turki ad-Dakhil, who is close to Prince bin Salman, had Tweeted that the response to any American sanctions on Saudi Arabia would be to establish a Russian base in Tabuk (in Northwestern Saudi Arabia) and to purchase Russian missiles and warplanes. But the Saudi authorities distanced themselves from this Tweet and its content.
The new Pakistani PM Imran Khan, who presented himself as the champion of the poor and promised a different Pakistani foreign policy that ends his country's submission to any regional axes, summarized his participation in the forum by telling the British daily The Independent that while he is sorry for Khashoggi's death, his country 'needs money', which is why he headed to Riyadh. And he was proven right when he was rewarded for his visit and participation by being given three billion dollars, as Saudi Arabia announced yesterday.
We said it before and we repeat it today: Money and business deals take precedence over human rights and values. This is why many have rushed to take part in this conference and exploit the absence Western banks and companies' officials and directors, in the hope of getting a slice of the Saudi financial cake.
But we do not know where the Saudi leadership will find the hundreds of billions of dollars that will satisfy all those who are presenting their beggars' bowls to it. Its financial reserves, which were estimated at some $750 billion four years ago, have evaporated or are close to doing so, thanks to its intensive armament projects and the Yemen war that costs Saudi coffers close to $9 billion every month, according to the Brookings Institution. Moreover, the Saudi budget deficit has been standing at around $90 billion on average over the past three years.
Prince Mohammad bin Salman, who wants to transform Saudi Arabia into the world's largest investment base, was wagering on the privatization of part of ARAMCO. But that plan has been postponed or canceled because Trump wants the money to be invested in the American financial markets or New York's Wall Street stock exchange. The Saudis are unhappy with that, since these monies could be frozen at any moment, especially if the JASTA act is implemented or economic sanctions are imposed on Saudi Arabia.
Proceeding with the Riyadh investment conference with the participation of Crown-Prince bin Salman despite the fact that many people believe that he is behind Khashoggi's murder confirms that he will remain as the actual ruler of Saudi Arabia, and that all is well and he has suffered no harm.
Moreover, the fact that Erdogan's speech to parliament on Tuesday was devoid of any new and documented evidence, and that the victim's corpse has not been found, suggests that some sort of permanent or temporary 'deal' may have been struck.
"But God knows best," concludes 'Atwan.
Ends…
3-De Mistura departs
Like his predecessors, UN Syria Envoy de Mistura has finally given up, but the real problem stems from the UN's growing impotence, says As'ad 'Abboud in today's Syrian ath-Thawra
UN Syrian Envoy Staffan de Mistura's resignation was no surprise, nor was the fact that he has not achieved much in his mission, says a commentator in a Syrian state-owned daily. This reflects the UN's general weakness and irrelevance, and the false assumptions on which it has based its approach to the Syrian crisis.
REACHING A DEAD END: "The man [de Mistura] has made up his mind to resign and he has set the date for that," writes As'ad 'Abboud in Wednesday's state-run Syrian daily ath-Thawra.
For he has reached a dead-end, just like his predecessors Lakhdar Brahimi and Kofi Anan.
The natural question is this: Why do international envoys to Syria reach a dead-end somewhat quickly and largely without achieving any results worth mentioning, when the goal of their mission is to find some sort of solution? Why is that so?
I believe that the international envoys' failure is closely linked to the UN's broader lack of success, not only in Syria but elsewhere. The envoys' missions are part of this international organization's activities, and the UN secretary-general chooses them after consultations with various parties. But the problem is that the UN's role in resolving the world's pending and dangerous issues has continuously been shrinking and on the retreat.
For what is the UN's role in Yemen or Libya or Palestine? What role does it play in the collapse of a large number of international agreements? What is its role in binding governments to international conventions and agreements? What role does it have in dealing with international and other sorts of crimes? What role does it play in any of these issues?
The UN has been impotent ever since the Cold War between the two major camps. Its impotence increased during the phase of American hegemony. In fact, the U.S. has continuously stressed the UN's limited role in all its international political behavior. For the U.S. views the UN as an institution that was based on World War II's results. And since the multiplicity of victors, which specifically included the Soviet Union, was one of these results, U.S. administrations now believe that this institution is longer of any use, no matter how submissive it may be to Washington's desires.
If that is the state of the UN, what can be expected from its envoys?
In Syria's case, the UN's policy has been based on a mistake ever since it began to deal with the events that have developed into a multi-faceted and compound war with catastrophic results. Moreover, in light of the Western and Arab pressure on Syria and what happened in the case of other countries including Libya, Egypt, and Tunisia, it behaved towards Syria on the assumption that it was going to fall soon. And the UN failed to see anything wrong about dealing with Syria on this basis, going so far as to back Western military strikes against it, or at least remaining silent in response to them. Nor was it embarrassed about about its shameful positions regarding what happened in Libya.
In general, and at the very basis of the manner in which the UN viewed Syria – if one can use such terms – was a stance that treated a Syrian force that rules the country and a foreign force that was demanding power equally. It failed to take into consideration that ruling power's true character, its position, and its role in the Syrians' and Syria's life. The truth is that the international envoys repeatedly submitted to a logic whereby they were in fact parties to the conflict rather than mediators.
"If Mr. Secretary-General is searching for a new envoy on the same basis, there is no doubt that his mission will face the same fate," concludes 'Abboud.
Ends…