MIDEAST MIRROR 25.10.18, SECTION A (ISRAEL)
Conspiracies, hallucinations, and paranoia
Russia is demanding Israel give it more advanced notice before carrying out airstrikes on targets in Syria, Israeli television reported Wednesday, as newly published satellite photographs purported to show the deployment of four advanced Russian anti-aircraft batteries near a suspected Syrian chemical weapons site. According to Hadashot TV, Russia is seeking to set new terms for Israeli operations in Syria and overhaul the current Israeli-Russian military coordination. Russia is insisting it receives further advance warning of Israeli strikes, the network said, though the report did not say how much. Israel usually informs Russia minutes before an airstrike. The Russian demand would likely limit Israel's freedom of maneuver in Syria, with the report noting it could endanger Israeli aircraft and allow Iranian operatives more time to hide targeted materiel. A senior diplomatic source quoted in the report said the demand was unacceptable operationally and Israel must not acquiesce to it. The report came as ImageSat International published photos showing four S-300 batteries deployed at a newly constructed site near the Northwestern Syrian city of Masyaf, where Israel has carried out raids on targets allegedly tied to Syria's chemical weapons program.
In political news, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu struck out at former minister Gideon Sa'ar Wednesday, accusing the once close ally from his Likud party of plotting behind the scenes to replace him as premier. The comments came after a report in the pro-Netanyahu Israel Hayom daily said the prime minister has put off moving up Knesset elections scheduled for next year amid fears that President Reuven Rivlin could task someone else with forming a government. According to the daily, the reported plot would have seen Rivlin choose Gideon Sa'ar, a popular former Likud minister seen as a potential challenger to Netanyahu from within the ruling party. Speaking at his 69th birthday party thrown for him yesterday, Netanyahu said he has been aware of the alleged scheme for weeks and jokingly called it the "conspiracy of the century." "I have known for a few weeks that a former Likud minister is talking to coalition sources and has concocted a subversive maneuver," he said, without naming Sa'ar. This was the first time Netanyahu related directly to the report about his suspicions published in Israel Hayom on Monday. Israeli coalition whip David Amsalem (Likud) said on Wednesday he would promote a bill that would limit the president's discretion in the decision on who to appoint to form a government after the elections.
Meanwhile, Prime Minister Netanyahu vowed on Wednesday to maintain a permanent Israeli military force in the West Bank, saying that if it weren't for Israeli troops stationed there, Palestinian President Mahmoud 'Abbas would be "overrun in two minutes" by Hamas. Netanyahu told a major Jewish conference that Israel doesn't have the liberty to repeat its mistake in Gaza, where Hamas violently seized control from 'Abbas after Israeli forces withdrew from the coastal strip. Asked about his vision for the West Bank, Netanyahu said he preferred to avoid labels such as "Palestinian state." But he did make clear his view that 'Abbas, known by his nickname Abu Mazen, and his Palestinian Authority owe their very existence to Israel's protection, and directly benefit from the presence of Israeli troops. "They'd be overrun in two minutes. A couple of years ago we uncovered a plot of 100 Hamas men to overthrow Abu Mazin. Overthrow? Kill him. Not kill him politically. Kill him. So, if we weren't there, they'd not be there, which is exactly what happened when we left Gaza," Netanyahu told an assembly of the Jewish Federation of North America.
In economic news, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and China's Vice President Wang Qishan on Wednesday co-hosted a high-profile trade and innovation conference in Jerusalem and toured together an exhibition of Israeli technology start-ups as the two countries worked to cement their fast-growing trade ties. A quarter century after establishing diplomatic relations, Israel and China have become important trade partners, with China emerging as an eager customer of Israeli technology. Netanyahu said that the Chinese government's choice to send Qishan, a close confidant of President Xi Jinping, to co-chair this year's Israeli innovation summit "reflects the growing ties between our countries, our economies, our peoples." Wang praised Israel as an innovation hub that China hopes to learn from as it modernizes its fast-growing economy. "Israel leads the world in electronics, information technology, modern medicine, and agriculture," he said. "China is still striving to achieve modernization."
China has become Israel's second most important export market after the United States, with exports of about $2.8 billion in the first half of 2018 – an increase of 80 percent compared to the first half of 2017. The two countries are conducting advanced negotiations for a free-trade zone, which would help Israeli exporters to compete in one of the world's growing markets, as well as help Israeli consumers benefit from low-priced consumer goods. Chinese investment in Israeli companies are important for the Israeli high-tech industry and are estimated to account an average of about 20 percent of total foreign investments in the industry. Gilad Cohen in Haaretz, writes that Israel is enjoying an unprecedented flourishing in its relations with the Far East in general, and is conducting advanced contacts to sign free trade zone agreements with Korea, Vietnam, and India. Many trade agreements were signed with the Philippines during the visit here of President Duterte, and Israeli exports to that country have doubled. Israel is looking Eastward, but the East is looking at Israel too. It sees a country that is worth investing in, where one can purchase varied products characterized by outstanding technology.
In Gaza, The Iron Dome missile fired Wednesday night to intercept an incoming rocket from the Strip was redirected after it became apparent the projectile was headed for an open field and did not represent a threat to human life, the army said. Shortly after 11 p.m. on Wednesday, a rocket was launched at Southern Israel from Gaza, triggering sirens in a number of communities in the Eshkol region, ending a week-long stretch of relative calm. An interceptor missile was launched from a nearby Iron Dome air defense battery. However, it was called off after air defense units calculated that the incoming rocket was heading toward an open field. In response to the late-night rocket attack, Israeli aircraft bombed eight Hamas targets in the Gaza Strip, including training bases and a weapons production facility, in the early hours of Thursday morning. The army said Israeli Air Force fighter jets struck Hamas targets in the North of the Strip and in the South, near the cities of Khan Younis and Rafah. There were no immediate reports of Palestinian casualties.
Defense Minister Avigdor Lieberman said that there is no escaping confrontation with Hamas, in an interview on Army Radio Thursday morning. However, the defense establishment "must turn over every stone before any confrontation, so they will not say that I'm dragging Israel into battle because of my own agenda," he added. Neither fuel nor salaries interest them," Lieberman said. "The heads of Hamas themselves claim, 'We want to remove the siege." He said that following Hamas' latest attacks by rockets and incendiary balloons, Egyptian negotiators reached out and asked the defense establishment to provide another chance for truce talks. On Wednesday, Israel allowed Qatari-funded fuel into Gaza, even though Lieberman had banned the fuel last week until Gaza violence was halted. He claimed, however, that there seemed to be no choice but war in Gaza, adding that "anything less than the toughest response won't help anymore. We have exhausted the other options." Education Minister Naftali Bennet called for a "zero tolerance policy" for Gaza violence in an address to the Institute for National Security Studies. "The security policy of a right-wing government is first to ensure security and only then agreements."
Egypt has warned PA President Mahmoud 'Abbas not to impose new sanctions on the Gaza Strip, a Palestinian official in Ramallah said on Wednesday. The Egyptians are also trying to convince Hamas to avoid taking measures that could aggravate tensions with 'Abbas's ruling Fatah faction, the official told The Jerusalem Post. Hamas leaders have told the Egyptians that they will reinstall the "administrative committee" that had functioned as a de facto Hamas government in the Gaza Strip until a year ago, if 'Abbas imposes new sanctions on the coastal enclave. Hamas suspended the work of the committee after it signed another "reconciliation" agreement with Fatah in Cairo in October 2017. 'Abbas had demanded that Hamas dissolve the committee as a precondition for signing the agreement. "The Egyptians have warned President 'Abbas that any sanctions on the Gaza Strip will increase tensions and result in more violence and bloodshed," the Palestinian official told the Post. On Wednesday, the Egyptian intelligence officials returned to the Gaza Strip for the second time in less than 24 hours for additional talks with leaders of Hamas and several Palestinian factions. The Egyptian delegation, headed by Ahmed 'Abdel-khaleq, director of the "Palestinian portfolio" in Egypt's General Intelligence Directorate, has also had talks with senior Fatah officials in Ramallah in the past few days. It was not clear on Wednesday whether the Egyptian officials had made any progress with regards to ending the Hamas-Fatah dispute and achieving a truce with Israel.
Finally, Israel on Thursday was bracing for its first winter storms of the season, with heavy rainfall, strong winds, and flooding expected across the country. Flash flood warnings were issued in the South, as rain began to fall in the region on Thursday morning and was expected to spread throughout the day.
NETANYAHU BEHIND CONSPIRACY THEORY: Ben Caspit in Maariv affirms that PM disseminated the story of a plot through Nathan Eshel, who tried for many days until he found an outlet. Having run out of all other options, he took it to Israel Hayom, the Netanyahu mouthpiece, where there is no editing.
"On January 14, 1993, Binyamin Netanyahu rushed to Channel 1's news studio in order to confess that he had betrayed his wife and had an extramarital affair with another woman (also married). The reason for this unusual move was Netanyahu's belief that his political enemies were in possession of a tape documenting his performances with his lover. In a telephone conversation received at the Netanyahu family's home the night before, the young wife was told that if Bibi did not step down from the primaries for the Likud leadership immediately, the tape would be released to the public. There were those who tried to dissuade Netanyahu from rushing to appear on television. Have you seen the tape? They asked. The answer was no. Has anyone you know seen the tape? No. So why go on TV? Calm down, count to ten, and see if there is anything in it.
Netanyahu heard, but did not listen. His enlarged paranoia glands threatened to explode. He was in a trance. In his memorable appearance, Netanyahu hinted that one of his rivals in the primaries for the Likud leadership, surrounded by a 'bunch of criminals,' was behind the deed. He meant David Levy. Twenty-five years later, Netanyahu is using one of Levy's former confidantes to disseminate the new conspiracy theory, the Putsch-Banana hatched by President Rivlin and former minister Gideon Sa'ar, to oust the prime minister.
Both plots never existed. In retrospect, it turned out that there was no hot tape. A midsummer night's dream, a total delirium, a hoax that caused Netanyahu to humiliate his wife in front of an entire nation on what was in those days the only TV channel, and to create a huge and juicy ruckus, with many casualties, much ado about nothing. It turns out that in the 25 years since then, not much has changed. The hallucination is the same hallucination, the paranoia has turned from neurotic to psychotic, the threats have swelled to huge proportions and control of the situation has been forever lost. The Israeli prime minister is spreading a conspiracy theory against the president and a member of his party, with no fault of their own, just because someone pressed the wrong buttons and whispered some tall tales in his ears.
A comic moment occurred yesterday during Netanyahu's birthday party in the Prime Minister's Office. He said a few words, and here is an exact quote: 'I have just come from... just something amazing. I am still thrilled by the meeting with the vice president of China; the second most powerful man in China. He has been here a few days, and I saw that the media is not interested at all, they do not care'. Here Netanyahu's voice rose, out of character, two or three octaves –to almost a shriek. 'The only thing that interests them,' he added, 'is the plot of the century, and that is all.'
You have to see it to believe it. Netanyahu, he is the man who disseminated this plot, through his lackey Nathan Eshel. Eshel toiled and sweated many days until he found buyers for the rotten merchandise in his possession. No professional journalist published the story, because none of its details could be cross-checked. In the end, they had no choice but to take it to the propaganda newspaper Israel Hayom, where there is no editing, censorship, or any obstruction whatsoever between propaganda and the printing press. After it was finally published and made waves, the first thing Netanyahu did was complain about the media's lack of coverage for the visit of the Chinaman.
What did you want the media to be interested in, Mr. Prime Minister? When a president and a former minister concoct a plot to oust the prime minister, it is a huge story. An earthquake. You spread this story. Now you complain that we were gullible enough to buy these used goods from you? And if you think it is over, you think again. Because immediately after complaining about the media, the prime minister went on to describe, in his voice, in great detail, that same 'conspiracy of the century' hatched by the 'former Likud minister' – against the will of Likud voters, the will of the public; an attempt to usurp an incumbent prime minister, etc.
To our horror, there is no one in the PM's entourage who will step up and take responsibility, put a hand on his shoulder and whisper in his ear: 'No, Bibi. Do not say that in your voice. When you say it in your voice, you justify the media frenzy, cancel everything you have said so far and raise the bar of proof to heights you cannot live up to. Remember January '93. Not every murmur that someone mumbles should become a conspiracy theory."
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BETWEEN INTERROGATIONS AND HALLUCINATIONS: Sima Kadmon in Yedioth Ahronoth explains how the report that the Netanyahu probes have ended and the Attorney General's decisions will be submitted before the expected date has ratcheted up the pressure in the PM's residence.
"This is a new one. A prime minister accusing the president of conspiring to oust him in a putsch attempt, and in response being diagnosed by the president as paranoid and recommended to see a psychiatrist. And all this smeared across the front page of Netanyahu's home newspaper, with the fingerprints leading like candy in the story of Hanzal and Gretel to the Prime Minister's Office.
The accusations are harsh: Netanyahu decided not to call early elections because he was informed that Rivlin, in partnership with a senior Likud member, intends to rob him of the possibility of forming a coalition. According to the same rumors, after the elections the president intends to place the task on that same senior person, and not on Netanyahu.
After Rivlin sent Netanyahu to have his head examined, the fire was aimed at another veteran enemy of Netanyahu, Gideon Sa'ar, who is also succeeding in arousing paranoia in the prime minister's home. He is portrayed as a subversive who wants to topple Netanyahu and prevent him from forming a government after the elections. Against the background of Netanyahu's current situation, the sense of persecution he is nurturing and the warm embrace he receives in Likud – it was only a matter of time until Netanyahu's fire would be directed towards his domestic rival. Signs of this have recently appeared in radio and television programs broadcast by pro-Netanyahu journalists. These same journalists fanned the flames and advanced the theory of cooperation between the 'former senior minister', as Netanyahu called him last night, and the president of the state, in an attempt to execute a coup against the prime minister.
Even if it is true – which it probably is not – that Netanyahu received a warning about Rivlin, it is clear that it is he who made the connection between Rivlin and Sa'ar and turned it into a global conspiracy. The idea that Sa'ar, who is currently outside Likud, is working together with the president to steal the premiership from Netanyahu is so farfetched that it is unnecessary to waste words on it. There was not even one member of Likud who said, publicly or privately, that he had heard something about the plot Rivlin and Sa'ar supposedly concocted. Even Yariv Levin, the man closest to Netanyahu, admitted in a radio interview that he had not heard about it.
But it is doubtful whether Netanyahu's intention, when using his newspaper to leak this ridiculous conspiracy theory, was only to hurt Sa'ar. It is far more logical that this is a spin, an experimental balloon launched to test the prevailing mood and prepare the ground for the enactment of a new law soon to be submitted to the Knesset plenum, aimed at limiting Rivlin's discretion and reducing the decisive weight he has in forming the government. This is the really important thing: The attempt by the prime minister and his lackeys to change a Basic Law – on the basis of this delusion, which Netanyahu apparently invented in his mind.
Instead of looking for traces of the conspiracy, we should try to understand why it was important for Netanyahu to make such accusations. What does he get from this whole affair? And the answer is the investigations. It always comes down to the investigations. The news that the prime minister's investigations have ended and that the Attorney General's decisions, subject to a hearing, will be submitted before the expected date has increased the pressure at the prime minister. The intention to announce elections and thus precede the Attorney General's decision – no longer seems relevant. The last thing Netanyahu wants is a decision by the Attorney General during an election period. So, less than a day after the report on the AG was published, the conspiracy theory was born."
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THERE IS A NEW KID IN TOWN: Yoav Limor in Israel Hayom states that Hezbollah's secret has been revealed. Mustafa Mughniyeh, son of former Hezbollah chief 'Imad Mughniyeh, who was liquidated by Israel, is initiating the organization's return to the Syrian Golan by collaborators who spy on the IDF.
"Hezbollah is busy these days establishing a new military infrastructure in the Druze village of Khader on the Syrian Golan Heights. The person responsible for setting up the organization's infrastructure is Mustafa Mughniyeh, the eldest son of 'Imad Mughniyeh, who was the organization's chief of staff and was assassinated in February 2008 in Damascus, in an operation attributed to Israel.
Hezbollah's military activity in the Golan Heights has been renewed in recent weeks. A tour along the border does not raise any suspicion of unusual activity, but Israel has learned that the organization has reestablished its military infrastructure in the village of Khader, situated about 3.5 kilometers from the fence. At this stage, this activity mainly includes observations and using equipment provided by Hezbollah to activists it is recruiting from the village who report to it.
The person responsible for this activity is Mustafa Mughniyeh. In the past, it was claimed that Mughniyeh was appointed chief of staff of Hezbollah (a position his father held until he was liquidated), but this lacked credibility, and according to information compiled in Israel, until recently he filled a major role in the organization's arms smuggling operation. Mustafa is the brother of Jihad Mughniyeh, who was assassinated in January 2015 while on a tour of the Syrian Golan with other senior officials. This assassination was also attributed to Israel, after it was claimed that Jihad was responsible for establishing a military infrastructure in the village of Khader, which was engaged in terrorist activity against Israel - just as his older brother is now doing. A move to establish a similar infrastructure, led by Samir Kuntar, ended in his assassination in December 2015 near Damascus.
Since the end of the civil war in the Golan this July, quiet along the border has been maintained. The rebels have surrendered or fled, and the Syrian army controls the area. Russian military police have been deployed along the border, and the Quneitra crossing was opened – at this stage for the passage of UNDOF soldiers, who are also returning to positions vacated during the war. Israel recently warned that Hezbollah is expected to try to exploit the new reality to establish a renewed grip on the Heights. The campaign has three phases: entrenchment and intelligence gathering, transfer of weapons, and further on down the road a shift to attacks. The leader of this secret campaign is Mustafa Mughniyeh, who is following in his father's and brother's footsteps and flying the flag of resistance against Israel."
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BLAME IT ON THE IDF: Alex Fishman in Yedioth Ahronoth argues that Netanyahu makes threats and then advocates a moderation regarding a military solution in Gaza, pinning his restraint on the army. Lieberman and Bennett have repeatedly carpet-bombed Gaza from the air in their statements, and then accused the army of opposing them. This game has been going on for months.
"What will the cabinet ministers do when the chief of staff retires? Who will be their lightning rod in the coming winter? On whom will they pin their political frustrations? The Prime Minister shows up in the Gaza envelope, makes threats, but ultimately adopts a very moderate position regarding a military solution, because the army 'does not recommend'. He is so blessed to have an army, otherwise he would have been forced to make good on his threats against his will.
The Defense Minister and the Minister of Education, who are squabbling for the appointment of the next defense minister, have already flattened Gaza from the air three or four times in their statements in recent months. Luckily, the army 'opposes it'. Otherwise, the cabinet would have instructed the air force to carry out the dumbest move imaginable: Carpet-bombing Gaza in response to disturbances on the fence and the incendiary balloons. Now Lieberman has announced he is renewing delivery of the Qatari fuel to Gaza because the IDF recommended it. Not because it is necessary and important, not in order to prevent unnecessary confrontation, but because the army and its leaders are merciful and compassionate and cannot see the approaching winter tempest that will overcome the residents of Gaza without electricity and heaters.
Cabinet ministers have been occupied with this game for months. Time after time the army 'rescues' them from their own statements, and they present it and its chief as soft and defeatist. No cabinet ever dared to erode the image of the chief of staff and the army just to stoke dubious political maneuvering. At no point in time did the army claim that it was not prepared to carry out the order to occupy the Strip. The question asked was always: To what purpose? And that is where it ended. Even when the cabinet convened after rockets were fired at Beersheba and the sea, the army did not have to sweat too much to convince the cabinet that the firing was a result of a 'force majeure.' The story of the lightning that activated the rockets is only one possible explanation, and not the most convincing one. But the ministers gladly bought in to it, so that they would not be required to keep their rhetorical commitments to burn down the house.
The Gaza front is now ripe for a military confrontation, and is only looking for the spark. But the political aim still does not exist. The defense establishment claims the confrontation is inevitable, and there is nothing to do but try to postpone it to a more convenient time - one that will enable Israel to derive some political benefit from it. In the same vein, Lieberman's decision this week to renew the supply of Qatari fuel to the Gaza power plant is not a humanitarian move, but pure 'realpolitik'. Just as Israel reduced the scope of its activities in Syria, in order to calm the Russians down. Just as Israel refrains from bombing Lebanon, for fear of war in the North. And just as Israel does not act against threats from other countries in the region, because the Americans vetoed it. Political plays are produced in the Cabinet room, but outside the room there is a real world. This gap, between the aggressive hallucinations and the 'realpolitik' oppressing the nation, is being pinned on the chief of staff. He has been turned into a political garbage bucket and expected to shut up.
Tomorrow, an event of a similar magnitude to the one that took place last week is expected again on the Gaza fence. The demonstrations will not stop, because they are an optimal recipe that allows Hamas to display resistance for seven consecutive months without going to war. If Hamas stops the demonstrations without a real achievement, it will have a hard time renewing the momentum. Hamas will also not make do with the fuel Lieberman is sending its way: It wants the Qatari money to pay salaries to its officials. This is also in Israel's interest - that money for subsistence enter the Strip. However, Israel cannot agree to serve as a banking conduit for the transfer of funds to a terrorist organization. So what is to be done? Where is the creativity? Where is the 'Swedish official' who will arrive from Egypt with the suitcase full of money?"
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NEW CONSPIRACY THEORY BORDERS ON PSYCHOSIS: Yossi Verter in Haaretz claims that if the PM opted against moving up elections, it is not because anyone is out to get him but rather to avoid elections coinciding with criminal charges that might lose him the vote.
"The Prime Minister's Office has been working hard for a long time, using its close confederates, to plant the story in the media of a putsch being put together by President Reuven Rivlin against Netanyahu. Lacking any evidence, logic, realism or even the most wobbly of legs to stand on, no one could be found to buy these worthless, rancid goods. It was rejected out of hand and returned to sender.
Today, the story was put out of its misery. Netanyahu's own trumpet, Israel Hayom, came out in its main headline attributing to Netanyahu the decision to reverse his position on moving up the Knesset elections because of 'fears concerning Rivlin.' The quick response from the President's Residence attributed a mental illness – paranoia – to he who feared, giving him a referral for psychiatric treatment, was violent and jaw-dropping. Rivlin long ago lost his patience for political spin, lies and tricks that those surrounding Netanyahu have been pulling against him. Rivlin has decided to nip this stupidity while it is still in the bud. In the Prime Minister's Office, they panicked. They realized that this could be just an appetizer.
In a split-second, the missile changed direction: It was not born in the President's Residence, Netanyahu's cronies dissembled, but by a 'former senior Likud official' – in other words, Gideon Sa'ar, who allegedly spoke with someone who heard from someone else. Sa'ar quickly put out a flat denial.
This is truly the type of story that is hard to deal with using rational tools because it is so obviously absurd. The thought that Rivlin, the No. 1 democrat in the country, would start a revolt against the will of the people in the elections and grant Sa'ar the mandate to establish the next government, just because they are friends while Rivlin and Bibi are at each other's throats, is more than paranoia. It is full psychosis. True insanity.
The Israel Hayom freebie newspaper is known for loyally echoing Netanyahu's messages. If the story is true that Netanyahu decided not to move up the elections to February or March of next year, then his motive is not related to the conspiracy theory about Rivlin/Sa'ar stealing the Prime Minister's Office from him. It lies in the end of the investigative process for Case 4000, the Bezeq/Walla case, and the statements attributed to senior law enforcement officials – that this time the speed with which the decision is made whether to put Netanyahu on trial will surprise everyone involved – as reported by Guy Peleg Wednesday evening on Hadashot Television News.
What is evident from these events is that Attorney General Avichai Mendelblit may very well make the initial decision on an indictment, yes or no, in the next few months. At the beginning of 2019. If the elections are moved forward, according to Netanyahu's original plan, to February or March, then Mendelblit's decision will fall during the height of the election campaign.
There is no doubt that the decision will be released, including materials from the investigation. The public will need to know who they may be about to vote for. Assuming that Netanyahu will be charged with accepting bribes in one or more cases, his chances of winning again will drop. Even if Likud, with him at its head, comes out as the largest party in the Knesset, it is very doubtful whether they will find partners who will agree to join forces with a prime minister charged with accepting bribes. It is possible he will not be able to form a government.
In this scenario, early elections are a two-edged sword. It would be better from Netanyahu's perspective for him to stay in the job for as long as possible, arrive as prime minister at the hearing with the attorney general over filing an indictment, and try to reach a deal that would save him from prison in return for his retirement from political life. Not Rivlin and not Sa'ar, the two demons, bother him at the moment, only the tidings that come from Mendelblit's office – and maybe sooner than later."
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THE CHALLENGE OF PRECISION-GUIDED MISSILES: Ofek Riemer for The Institute for National Security Studies asserts that if the military buildup in Lebanon is indeed a genuine strategic threat, Israel must take greater risks to confront them and prove that it is not deterred from removing the danger.
"In his speech at the UN General Assembly, Prime Minister Netanyahu warned, 'Iran is directing Hezbollah to build secret sites to convert inaccurate projectiles into precision-guided missiles.' As evidence, he presented a map showing three sites in Southern Beirut near the international airport, which Israeli intelligence claims are related to this project. The expose was accompanied by a video clip distributed by the IDF spokesperson to the media and on social networks with more information about the project, and text messages were sent to residents of Beirut. The speech, including the disclosure of sensitive information about both the missile conversion sites in Lebanon and the warehouse of nuclear materials in Iran, met with a mixed reception. Some praised the political act designed to increase pressure on Iran and Hezbollah. Conversely, some criticized the disclosure of the hard-earned intelligence material.
What is Israel's ultimate goal in the campaign against the production of missiles in Lebanon - prevention or delay? And, is the media policy, including the disclosure of intelligence, useful in attaining this goal?
The information about the project to convert rockets into high-precision missiles on Lebanese territory was first revealed in a Kuwaiti newspaper in March 2017. Already then the Israeli press hinted that Israel was behind this report. Three months later, then-Israeli Military Intelligence Directorate Chief Maj. Gen. Herzi Halevi confirmed the information in a public lecture. The Prime Minister and senior military establishment leaders then declared that Israel regards 'gravely' the construction of factories for production of advanced weapons in Lebanon, but refrained from threatening direct military action to attack the project.
The impression is that the Israeli leadership has refused to commit itself to take direct military action to remove the threat due to Hezbollah's success in consolidating a deterrence equation against Israel, whereby an attack in Lebanon is a red line for Hezbollah. As part of Israel's ongoing campaign since early 2013 against Hezbollah's arming itself with advanced weapons, in February 2014 IDF forces attacked an arms shipment on the Western side of the Syrian-Lebanese border. In a counterattack against IDF forces on Mt. Dov (Shab'a Farms), Hezbollah acted for the first time since the beginning of the campaign to enforce the red line it had drawn. Since then, the IDF has refrained from attacks on Lebanese territory. In establishing weapons production plants in Lebanon, Iran and Hezbollah therefore presumably assume that Israel will not attack them out of concern about Hezbollah's response and the possibility of escalation in Lebanon.
In these circumstances, Israel has continued its operations against the project through air force attacks in Syrian territory – a conduit for delivery of advanced missiles and conversion equipment to Lebanon – and also probably through covert operations in Lebanon itself. In July 2017, IDF Chief of Staff Gadi Eisenkot claimed that Israel was 'working all the time against missile conversion in Lebanon with a set of tools that it is best to keep quiet about, and with the aim of not causing a deterioration.' Two months later, he said that the IDF had successfully prevented Hezbollah from attaining capability to launch precision missiles into Israeli territory. It appears, however, that the Israeli efforts did not succeed in delaying the project for long, and Israel accordingly resumed its use of the media to reveal additional information about the project and deliver threats aimed mostly at the Lebanese side, such as in an article published by the IDF spokesperson early this year.
The repeated use of the media indicates that Israel has likely not achieved its goals in Lebanon through other means. Furthermore, in the absence of a credible threat of military action, its use of the media indicates that Israel is deterred from acting in Lebanon, thereby signaling indirectly that Iran and Hezbollah are free to continue to carry out their plans. It therefore appears that Israel's use of the media to expose Hezbollah's operations is not aimed at those directly responsible; rather, it is designed mainly to exert pressure on the international community and the authorities and public in Lebanon. This pressure is meant to increase concern about a war between Israel and Hezbollah that will 'cause the destruction' of Lebanon, its infrastructure, and its army, and aggravate instability in the region, in the hope that the parties who are the subject of this pressure will intervene and halt the project.
Nevertheless, it appears that these efforts have not borne fruit. Even after the Prime Minister's speech at the UN, the international community is still indifferent to the issue, and refuses to use the means at its disposal to exert pressure on Lebanon. The U.S. administration is preoccupied with internal affairs and other urgent foreign policy issues (the North Korean and Iranian nuclear programs, relations with NATO, and trade with China), and has left the Syrian-Lebanese theater to Russia. This is evident through Russia's expanding influence in Syria, as indicated inter alia by the orchestration of diplomatic measures aimed at reaching a political settlement of the crisis and bringing the refugees back to the country; the emerging economic and security agreements between Russia and Lebanon; and the withdrawal of American Patriot missile batteries from Jordan. The sanctions imposed on Hezbollah, including those recently approved by the U.S. House of Representatives, are also proving unsuccessful in exerting pressure on the organization on this issue. Europe, for its part, regards Hezbollah as an element contributing to internal stability in Lebanon, and still supplies unconditional monetary and military aid to that country. The response of the Lebanese administration, paralyzed in any case in the absence of a government almost six months after the elections, is led by Hezbollah's allies, who are helping to cover up for it, as indicated by the staged tour for foreign ambassadors conducted by the Foreign Minister and Hezbollah's partner in the March 8 alliance. The Lebanese public, including residents of Southern Beirut living in the vicinity of the production sites, has refrained from criticism of Hezbollah.
The ongoing attempts to upset the Iranian efforts to arm Hezbollah with advanced weapons, whether through kinetic attacks in Syria, diplomatic activity, or clandestine operations in Syria and Lebanon, show the difficulty in deterring enemies from force buildup (in contrast to the use of force). The repeated intelligence disclosures about the project for manufacturing precision-guided missiles in Lebanon and the public statements on the matter have failed to halt the project and remove the threat against Israel. However, the disclosure has not upset Israel's ability to take military action against the threat in Lebanon, and in all probability Jerusalem never intended to take such action. In addition, the disclosure is likely to enhance the sense among the Iranian Revolutionary Guards and Hezbollah that they have been penetrated by Israeli intelligence, and in this specific case may also delay the process, due to the need to move the exposed sites to alternative locations. Nevertheless, the ongoing recourse to the media has a negative impact on the image of Israeli deterrence, and reinforces the sense that Israel is deterred and does not wish to operate militarily in Lebanon.
It appears, therefore, that at this stage Israeli action is insufficient to achieve its main goal of forcing the international community and Lebanon, not to mention Iran and Hezbollah, to take action to halt the project. Thus if this is indeed a genuine strategic threat to Israel that is in the advanced stages of development, and considering the growing difficulty in taking kinetic action in Syria, Israel will have to take greater risks in order to create a credible threat and signal its determination to remove the danger. Possible means include delivering an ultimatum, with an explicit threat of military action in Lebanon, or conducting a preemptive attack on the known production sites there, even with the accompanying risk of escalation into a large-scale military conflict.
The importance that Iran and Hezbollah attach to high-precision missiles to create a balance of deterrence against Israel, which still maintains its military supremacy, and the high risk of escalation incurred in an attack on Hezbollah's military buildup that could culminate in a war that Israel wishes to avoid, require continued efforts to develop responses to the challenge of precision missiles in Lebanon. Whether Israel attacks the existing sites or whether it succeeds in generating indirect pressure that makes Iran and Hezbollah suspend the project, it cannot be ruled out that Iran's goal to arm Hezbollah with advanced weapons will remain unchanged."
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